Diplomatic Proposals Set to be Delivered to Moscow In the Coming Days, States Zelenskyy

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to present the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to journalists. He clarified that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, including through operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would serve as assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not seen the details of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to troops from NATO member states operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. A key demand involves Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard units instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” said the president, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he concluded.