A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
